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DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

2-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Reliant Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-4  |  Home

30
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Kai Kroeger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
41%
📊
TEXANS
59%
COWBOYS 44% Book Odds: +130
TEXANS 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 48.5 62%
Under 48.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Houston)
CowboysDAL (+3) 0 TexansHOU (-3)
Houston Texans (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

24.9%

Texans Cover

75.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

DAL By 1-6 points

11.1%

DAL By 7-13 points

7.6%

HOU By 1-6 points

15.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 22.80
31
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
22
DALLAS
Book Implied: 22.80
25
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Texans Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.5
A
Sim Cowboys (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
B
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 DAL @ HOU 34 - 30
Nov 18, 2024 HOU @ DAL 34 - 10
Dec 11, 2022 HOU @ DAL 23 - 27
Oct 7, 2018 DAL @ HOU 16 - 19
Oct 5, 2014 HOU @ DAL 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.5% more
Dallas: 107.3 vs Houston: 85.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.1% more
Dallas: 5.7 vs Houston: 4.6
Total Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Dallas: 363.6 vs Houston: 298.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Dallas: 256.3 vs Houston: 212.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 21.5 34
HOU Score 31.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 23.1 16.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 212.9 / 256.3 335.0 / 324.0
Rushing Yards 85.3 / 107.3 62.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 298.2 / 363.6 397.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.7 7.6 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +130 / -155 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 48.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DAL
HOU
DAL
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
67% 2-1-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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