Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Ravens TEN @ BAL

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-4  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

3-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
@
Ryan Eckley
KEY GAME

Ryan Eckley

#30 | Punter
Player
Tommy Townsend None-None
Ryan Eckley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
23%
📊
RAVENS
77%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (TEN)
TITANS 15% Book Odds: +550
RAVENS 89% Book Odds: -800
Book Implied: 15.40% / 88.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 69%
Under 42.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.4
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tennessee)
TitansTEN (+11.5) 0 RavensBAL (-11.5)
Tennessee Titans (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

79.2%

Ravens Cover

20.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN +11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

TEN By 1-6 points

9.7%

TEN By 7-13 points

6.3%

BAL By 1-6 points

14.5%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 15.50
30.2
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
27
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 15.50
18
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Ravens Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Titans Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.4
D
Sim Titans (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 TEN @ BAL 18 - 24
Oct 15, 2023 BAL @ TEN 24 - 16
Jan 10, 2021 BAL @ TEN 20 - 13
Nov 22, 2020 TEN @ BAL 30 - 24
Jan 11, 2020 TEN @ BAL 28 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +78.6% more
Baltimore: 171.0 vs Tennessee: 95.8
Total Yards (L5) +46.9% more
Baltimore: 382.5 vs Tennessee: 260.4
First Downs (L5) +45.3% more
Baltimore: 21.4 vs Tennessee: 14.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +32.6% more
Baltimore: 6.5 vs Tennessee: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 18.8 18
BAL Score 30.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 14.7 19.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 211.5 / 164.6 272.0 / 212.0
Rushing Yards 171.0 / 95.8 112.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 382.5 / 260.4 384.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.5 / 4.9 6.3 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +300 / -380 → +550 / -800 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +11.5 / -11.5 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 42.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TEN
BAL
TEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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