Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Buccaneers GB @ TB

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

2-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

0-4  |  Home

14
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
54%
📊
BUCCANEERS
46%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (TB)
PACKERS 61% Book Odds: -155
BUCCANEERS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 60.80% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +16.9 (Over)
Over 38.5 90%
Under 38.5 10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
PackersGB (-3) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3)
Line aligns with book spread (+3)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

41.5%

Buccaneers Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

GB By 1-6 points

17.0%

GB By 7-13 points

17.5%

TB By 1-6 points

15.3%

TB By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 20.80
26.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 17.80
Simulated Score
25
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 20.80
22
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 17.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Packers Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Packers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (-3) Push
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (-3) Push
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.4
A
Sim o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 GB @ TB 17 - 14
Dec 17, 2023 TB @ GB 34 - 20
Sep 25, 2022 GB @ TB 14 - 12
Jan 24, 2021 TB @ GB 31 - 26
Oct 18, 2020 GB @ TB 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.6% more
Green Bay: 247.6 vs Tampa Bay: 169.3
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Green Bay: 18.4 vs Tampa Bay: 15.0
Total Yards (L5) +16.7% more
Green Bay: 313.7 vs Tampa Bay: 261.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.4% more
Green Bay: 5.2 vs Tampa Bay: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 29.2 17
TB Score 26.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.0 / 18.4 19.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 169.3 / 247.6 134.0 / 197.0
Rushing Yards 92.1 / 66.1 141.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 261.4 / 313.7 275.0 / 283.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 5.2 4.5 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → -155 / +130 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 38.5 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
GB
TB
GB
ML
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-3-1
100% 4-0-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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