Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Eagles LAR @ PHI

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

2-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

2-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
52%
📊
EAGLES
48%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (PHI)
RAMS 66% Book Odds: -198
EAGLES 38% Book Odds: +164
Book Implied: 66.40% / 37.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 42.5 48%
Under 42.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Philadelphia)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

48.9%

Eagles Cover

51.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PHI +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

LAR By 1-6 points

16.6%

LAR By 7-13 points

15.7%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.3%

PHI By 7-13 points

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 23
20.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
22
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 23
25
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Eagles (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.4
B
Sim Eagles (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
D
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 LAR @ PHI 24 - 20
Sep 21, 2025 LAR @ PHI 26 - 33
Jan 19, 2025 LAR @ PHI 22 - 28
Nov 24, 2024 PHI @ LAR 37 - 20
Oct 8, 2023 PHI @ LAR 23 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +38.7% more
Los Angeles: 299.9 vs Philadelphia: 183.9
Total Yards (L5) +31.8% more
Los Angeles: 436.9 vs Philadelphia: 298.1
First Downs (L5) +26.9% more
Los Angeles: 23.3 vs Philadelphia: 17.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.2% more
Los Angeles: 6.3 vs Philadelphia: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 21.2 24
PHI Score 20.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 23.3 12.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 183.9 / 299.9 68.0 / 309.0
Rushing Yards 114.2 / 137.0 104.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 298.1 / 436.9 172.0 / 415.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 6.3 3.0 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +102 → -198 / +164 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 42.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAR
PHI
LAR
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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