Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Bengals JAX @ CIN

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

3-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
49%
📊
BENGALS
51%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (JAX)
JAGUARS 45% Book Odds: +124
BENGALS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.4
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 51.5 47%
Under 51.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Cincinnati)
JaguarsJAX (+2.5) 0 BengalsCIN (-2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

33.4%

Bengals Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

JAX By 1-6 points

13.5%

JAX By 7-13 points

10.4%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24.50
28.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24.50
27
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Bengals (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.4
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 JAX @ CIN 22 - 17
Sep 14, 2025 JAX @ CIN 27 - 31
Dec 4, 2023 CIN @ JAX 34 - 31
Sep 30, 2021 JAX @ CIN 21 - 24
Oct 4, 2020 JAX @ CIN 25 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.3 vs Jacksonville: 0.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Cincinnati: 233.7 vs Jacksonville: 198.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Jacksonville: 115.6 vs Cincinnati: 102.3
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Jacksonville: 21.4 vs Cincinnati: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 22.2 22
CIN Score 28.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 21.4 26.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 233.7 / 198.5 414.0 / 212.0
Rushing Yards 102.3 / 115.6 23.0 / 111.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.49
Total Yards 336.1 / 314.1 437.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.3 6.2 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +124 / -148 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +2.5 / -2.5
63%TICKETS37%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
59%TICKETS41%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
JAX
CIN
JAX
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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