Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Bears NYJ @ CHI

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

1-3  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Cairo Santos
KEY GAME

Cairo Santos

#8 | Place kicker
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Cairo Santos None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
23%
📊
BEARS
77%
▲ Edge: +11.50% (CHI)
JETS 39% Book Odds: +160
BEARS 66% Book Odds: -192
Book Implied: 38.50% / 65.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +16.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 89%
Under 43.5 11%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Chicago)
JetsNYJ (+3.5) 0 BearsCHI (-3.5)
Chicago Bears (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

21.6%

Bears Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

NYJ By 1-6 points

10.0%

NYJ By 7-13 points

6.6%

CHI By 1-6 points

14.7%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20
35.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
18
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20
27
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bears Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Bears Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bears (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Sim Bears (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 NYJ @ CHI 12 - 23
Nov 27, 2022 CHI @ NYJ 10 - 31
Oct 28, 2018 NYJ @ CHI 10 - 24
Sep 22, 2014 CHI @ NYJ 27 - 19
Dec 26, 2010 NYJ @ CHI 34 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.9% more
Chicago: 157.3 vs New York: 85.6
Total Yards (L5) +31.0% more
Chicago: 386.1 vs New York: 294.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.7% more
Chicago: 5.6 vs New York: 4.7
First Downs (L5) +13.4% more
Chicago: 21.7 vs New York: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 24.5 12
CHI Score 35.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 19.2 34.0 / 7.0
Net Passing Yards 228.7 / 209.1 260.0 / 98.0
Rushing Yards 157.3 / 85.6 232.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.71 / 0.29
Total Yards 386.1 / 294.6 492.0 / 157.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 4.7 5.5 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +160 / -192 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 43.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
NYJ
CHI
NYJ
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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