Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Bills NE @ BUF

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

2-2  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

3-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Tommy Doman Jr.
KEY GAME

Tommy Doman Jr.

#39 | Punter
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Tommy Doman Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
40%
📊
BILLS
60%
▲ Edge: +13.40% (NE)
PATRIOTS 27% Book Odds: +275
BILLS 78% Book Odds: -345
Book Implied: 26.70% / 77.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 49.5 37%
Under 49.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (+7) 0 BillsBUF (-7)
New England Patriots (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

62.6%

Bills Cover

37.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE +4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

14.4%

NE By 7-13 points

11.7%

BUF By 1-6 points

16.9%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 21.20
25
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
23
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 21.20
26
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Bills Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +4.5
C
Sim Patriots (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.5
B
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 NE @ BUF 29 - 26
Dec 14, 2025 BUF @ NE 35 - 31
Oct 5, 2025 NE @ BUF 23 - 20
Jan 5, 2025 BUF @ NE 16 - 23
Dec 22, 2024 NE @ BUF 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +37.7% more
Buffalo: 24.0 vs New England: 17.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.7% more
Buffalo: 159.4 vs New England: 116.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Buffalo: 0.5 vs New England: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.8% more
Buffalo: 376.4 vs New England: 322.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 20.5 29
BUF Score 25.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 17.4 19.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 217.0 / 205.8 249.0 / 262.0
Rushing Yards 159.4 / 116.6 91.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 376.4 / 322.4 340.0 / 405.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 2.2 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 5.5 6.3 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +275 / -345 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +7 / -7 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
BUF Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
BUF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -2.9
BUF
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NE
BUF
NE
ML
50% 3-3
86% 6-1
50% 3-3
86% 6-1
ATS
17% 1-5
33% 2-4-1
17% 1-5
33% 2-4-1
TTL
33% 2-4
14% 1-6
17% 1-5
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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