Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Commanders IND @ WSH

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 9:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

1-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
51%
📊
COMMANDERS
49%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (WSH)
COLTS 70% Book Odds: -230
COMMANDERS 35% Book Odds: +190
Book Implied: 69.70% / 34.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 66%
Under 46.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
ColtsIND (-4.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+4.5)
Washington Commanders (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

37.7%

Commanders Cover

62.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSH +4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

IND By 1-6 points

16.9%

IND By 7-13 points

18.3%

WSH By 1-6 points

14.5%

WSH By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28.2
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 25.50
23.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 25.50
26
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.4
D
Sim Commanders (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 IND @ WSH 30 - 13
Oct 30, 2022 WSH @ IND 17 - 16
Sep 16, 2018 IND @ WSH 21 - 9
Nov 30, 2014 WSH @ IND 27 - 49
Oct 17, 2010 IND @ WSH 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.3% more
Indianapolis: 1.9 vs Washington: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Indianapolis: 193.5 vs Washington: 171.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.8% more
Washington: 118.2 vs Indianapolis: 96.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 28.2 30
WSH Score 23.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 18.8 12.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 171.8 / 193.5 217.0 / 129.0
Rushing Yards 118.2 / 96.3 100.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.13 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 290.0 / 289.8 317.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.7 5.2 / 3.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → -230 / +190 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 46.5 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
IND
WSH
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Looks to Build Momentum in Road Test at Penn State
si 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 7 hours, 29 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels Returns to Full Practice as Commanders Grapple wi…
headtopics 19 hours, 46 minutes ago
Commanders' Chig Okonkwo Not Fading Away Yet Despite Early Seaso…
yahoo 19 hours, 47 minutes ago
Brian Branch's Return to Practice Could Be the Spark Detroit's D…
yahoo 20 hours, 2 minutes ago