Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Browns PIT @ CLE

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

2-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Thu, Oct 1 • 8:15 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Cameron Johnston None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
56%
📊
BROWNS
44%
STEELERS 59% Book Odds: -143
BROWNS 44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 58.80% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
37.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 37.5 49%
Under 37.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3) 0 BrownsCLE (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

61.2%

Browns Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

17.0%

PIT By 7-13 points

18.0%

CLE By 1-6 points

14.7%

CLE By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 20.20
16.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 17.20
Simulated Score
21
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 20.20
18
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 17.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Browns (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim o37.5 Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PIT @ CLE 24 - 27
Dec 28, 2025 PIT @ CLE 6 - 13
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ PIT 9 - 23
Dec 8, 2024 CLE @ PIT 14 - 27
Nov 21, 2024 PIT @ CLE 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Pittsburgh: 206.6 vs Cleveland: 177.2
Total Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Pittsburgh: 310.3 vs Cleveland: 275.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2 vs Cleveland: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
Pittsburgh: 17.9 vs Cleveland: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.5 24
CLE Score 16.5 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 17.9 22.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 177.2 / 206.6 260.0 / 269.0
Rushing Yards 98.6 / 103.6 112.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 275.8 / 310.3 372.0 / 361.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.1 6.0 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114 → -143 / +129 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 40.5 → 37.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PIT
CLE
PIT
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 2 hours, 10 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 2 hours, 14 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 8 hours, 5 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 8 hours, 8 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 8 hours, 15 minutes ago