PITTSBURGH
STEELERSPIT
2-2 | Road
24
CLEVELAND
BROWNSCLE
3-1 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Cameron Johnston
#19 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Corey Bojorquez
#13 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Cameron Johnston | None-None |
| Corey Bojorquez | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
56%
BROWNS
44%
STEELERS
59%
Book Odds: -143
BROWNS
44%
Book Odds: +129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
37.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 37.5
49%
Under 37.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-6 points
17.0%
PIT By 7-13 points
18.0%
CLE By 1-6 points
14.7%
CLE By 7-13 points
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
20.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 20.20
Cleveland
16.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 17.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
21
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 20.20
Cleveland
18
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 17.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Steelers
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Steelers
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Steelers (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Browns (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u37.5
Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim
o37.5
Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PIT @ CLE
24 - 27
Dec 28, 2025
PIT @ CLE
6 - 13
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ PIT
9 - 23
Dec 8, 2024
CLE @ PIT
14 - 27
Nov 21, 2024
PIT @ CLE
19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+14.2% more
Pittsburgh: 206.6
vs
Cleveland: 177.2
Total Yards (L5)
+11.1% more
Pittsburgh: 310.3
vs
Cleveland: 275.8
Turnovers (L5)
+11.1% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 1.0
First Downs (L5)
+9.9% more
Pittsburgh: 17.9
vs
Cleveland: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
20.5
24
CLE Score
16.5
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.2 / 17.9
22.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards
177.2 / 206.6
260.0 / 269.0
Rushing Yards
98.6 / 103.6
112.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.4 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards
275.8 / 310.3
372.0 / 361.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 1.2
2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
4.8 / 5.1
6.0 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114
→
-143 / +129
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5
→
-3 / +3
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 40.5
→
37.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +0.8
CLE
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +0.8
CLE
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PIT
CLE
PIT
ML
29%
2-5
71%
5-2
57%
4-3
43%
3-4
ATS
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
14%
1-6
TTL
57%
4-3
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
57%
4-3
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