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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

88-70  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

97-61  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Robbie Ray
STARTING PITCHER

Robbie Ray

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robbie Ray 13-8 3.60 1.33 162.1 138
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 14-8 2.51 0.87 179.0 178
13-8 W-L 14-8
3.60 ERA Ldr 2.51
1.33 WHIP Ldr 0.87
162.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 179.0
138 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 178
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
33%
📊
DODGERS
67%
PADRES 35% Book Odds: +188
DODGERS 70% Book Odds: -231
Book Implied: 34.70% / 69.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.9%

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers Loss
67% Win Prob
A
Sim Padres Win
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
159
Games Played
159
4.40
Runs / Game
▲ 4.97
.243
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .339
.397
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .425
.715
OPS
▲ .764
180
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +76.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs San Diego: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +22.1% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs San Diego: 1.5
Walks (L5) +21.2% more
Los Angeles: 3.4 vs San Diego: 2.8
Total Bases (L5) +21.0% more
Los Angeles: 18.8 vs San Diego: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.5 5
LAD Score 5.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 9.3 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.7 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.8 / 15.5 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.8 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -121 → +188 / -231 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
89%TICKETS11%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
89-70-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
97-62-0 (61.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(56.6%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(42.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
74-81-4
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3% Total +/-: +0.1
LAD
72-83-4
O: 46.5% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
55% 87-71
50% 80-79
48% 76-83
51% 81-77
ATS
59% 93-65
53% 85-74
44% 70-89
55% 87-71
TTL
49% 76-78-4
51% 78-76-5
45% 70-85-4
54% 82-70-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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