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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

78-80  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

74-84  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ethan Pecko

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ethan Pecko 1-0 3.77 1.12 28.2 19
George Kirby 9-11 4.24 1.39 169.2 143
1-0 W-L 9-11
3.77 Ldr ERA 4.24
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.39
28.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 169.2
19 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
50%
📊
MARINERS
50%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (HOU)
ASTROS 49% Book Odds: +105
MARINERS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 66%
Under 7.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Houston Astros (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

63.7%

Mariners Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

15.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
A
Sim Mariners Win
59% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 HOU @ SEA 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026 HOU @ SEA 7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026 SEA @ HOU 3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026 SEA @ HOU 10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026 SEA @ HOU 7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Seattle SEA
159
Games Played
159
4.45 ▲
Runs / Game
4.05
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.231
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.312
.414 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.727 ▲
OPS
.690
218 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +60.0% more
Seattle: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.4
Walks (L5) +22.0% more
Seattle: 3.7 vs Houston: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +68.4% more
Houston: 2.2 vs Seattle: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +43.3% more
Houston: 17.0 vs Seattle: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.8 5
SEA Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 9.3 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.9 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 17.0 10.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.0 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → +105 / -126 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
66%TICKETS34%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
79-80-0 (49.7%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
74-85-0 (46.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(36.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
77-73-9
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
83-68-8
O: 55.0% / U: 45.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50% 79-80
50% 79-79
52% 83-76
46% 73-86
ATS
60% 96-63
55% 87-71
59% 94-65
55% 87-72
TTL
55% 82-67-10
45% 67-82-9
52% 78-71-10
43% 65-85-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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