ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
84-74 | Road
5
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
57-101 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Adams
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 9-14 | 5.00 | 1.47 | 156.2 | 111 |
| Mason Adams | 0-1 | 5.09 | 1.65 | 23.0 | 23 |
9-14
W-L
0-1
5.00 Ldr
ERA
5.09
1.47 Ldr
WHIP
1.65
156.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
23.0
111 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
23
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
64%
ROCKIES
36%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
63%
Book Odds: -168
ROCKIES
42%
Book Odds: +139
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 11.0
46%
Under 11.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
ARI @ COL
12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026
ARI @ COL
5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
ARI @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
COL @ ARI
6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
COL @ ARI
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.720
OPS
▲
.739
166
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+61.2% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
Colorado: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Colorado: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+37.3% more
Arizona: 17.1
vs
Colorado: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+35.3% more
Arizona: 10.4
vs
Colorado: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
6.0
5
COL Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 10.4
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 6.9
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 17.1
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.9
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -198 / +162
→
-168 / +139
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
54%
86-74
ATS
60%
97-64
57%
91-70
52%
83-78
56%
89-71
TTL
60%
93-62-6
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-78-6
49%
73-77-9
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