Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rangers NYM @ TEX

NEW YORK

METSNYM

73-85  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

78-80  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cody Bradford
STARTING PITCHER

Cody Bradford

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nolan McLean 11-10 3.18 1.19 172.2 189
Cody Bradford 0-5 4.19 1.50 38.2 20
11-10 W-L 0-5
3.18 Ldr ERA 4.19
1.19 Ldr WHIP 1.50
172.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 38.2
189 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 20
AI Model Win Probability
METS
60%
📊
RANGERS
40%
▲ Edge: +8% (NYM)
METS 52% Book Odds: -109
RANGERS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.20% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 55%
Under 8.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
MetsNYM (-1.5) 0 RangersTEX (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

35.4%

Rangers Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 NYM @ TEX 1 - 3
Sep 23, 2026 NYM @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 NYM @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 14, 2025 TEX @ NYM 2 - 5
Sep 13, 2025 TEX @ NYM 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.705
OPS
▲ .713
204 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +40.2% more
New York: 9.8 vs Texas: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +39.6% more
New York: 14.3 vs Texas: 8.7
Home Runs (L5) +25.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +10.3% more
New York: 204.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.0 7
TEX Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.9 / 9.8 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 7.1 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.7 / 14.3 4.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.7 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → -109 / -110 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYM
TEX
NYM
ML
53% 86-76
50% 79-80
57% 91-70
48% 76-83
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-66
61% 98-63
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 80-66-13
55% 81-66-14
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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