MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
78-80 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
87-71 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto | 1-5 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 82.2 | 69 |
| Kevin Gausman | 9-12 | 4.55 | 1.27 | 172.0 | 177 |
1-5
W-L
9-12
4.14 Ldr
ERA
4.55
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.27
82.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 172.0
69
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 177
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
30%
CUBS
70%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (CHC)
MARLINS
39%
Book Odds: +159
CUBS
66%
Book Odds: -194
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
75%
Under 6.5
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
Chicago
5.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Chicago
CHC
159
Games Played
159
4.43
Runs / Game
▲
5.29
.248
Avg (AVG)
▲
.251
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.339
.399
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.429
.725
OPS
▲
.769
163
Home Runs
▲
218
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+33.7% more
Chicago: 218.0
vs
Miami: 163.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+19.4% more
Chicago: 5.3
vs
Miami: 4.4
Home Runs (L5)
+15.4% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Miami: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+12.1% more
Chicago: 15.0
vs
Miami: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.5
3
CHC Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.8
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 10.7
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 13.4
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +178 / -218
→
+159 / -194
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
78-81-0
(49.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
88-72-0
(55.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
81-74-4
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
89-68-3
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
57%
89-68
48%
76-83
52%
81-75
55%
86-71
ATS
60%
93-63-1
57%
90-69
48%
74-81-1
54%
85-72
TTL
52%
79-72-6
56%
87-68-4
47%
70-80-6
53%
81-72-4
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