MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
78-80 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
87-71 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto | 1-5 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 82.2 | 69 |
| Kevin Gausman | 9-12 | 4.55 | 1.27 | 172.0 | 177 |
1-5
W-L
9-12
4.14 Ldr
ERA
4.55
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.27
82.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 172.0
69
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 177
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
30%
CUBS
70%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (CHC)
MARLINS
39%
Book Odds: +159
CUBS
66%
Book Odds: -194
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
75%
Under 6.5
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
Chicago
5.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.727
▲
OPS
.374
168
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+15.4% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Miami: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+12.1% more
Chicago: 15.0
vs
Miami: 13.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.7% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.5
3
CHC Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.8
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 10.7
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 13.4
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +178 / -218
→
+159 / -194
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
58%
93-68
48%
78-84
51%
82-79
55%
88-72
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
91-71
47%
75-85-1
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
56%
88-69-5
46%
72-83-6
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Social Media Squad Unleashes Relentless Trolling Afte…
Cleveland Guardians Stun White Sox, Advance to ALCS Against Tamp…
Guardians' Ramirez and Williams Deliver Legendary Performances i…
Guardians' Unconventional Clubhouse Ritual Powers Historic ALDS …
Guardians Ride Locker Room Anthem and Fan's Note to Stunning ALC…