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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

81-77  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

68-90  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Hudson 5-4 3.03 1.21 65.1 59
Seth Lugo 7-9 5.06 1.46 169.0 131
5-4 W-L 7-9
3.03 Ldr ERA 5.06
1.21 Ldr WHIP 1.46
65.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 169.0
59 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 131
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
46%
📊
ROYALS
54%
▲ Edge: +4% (KC)
WHITE SOX 55% Book Odds: -120
ROYALS 50% Book Odds: -101
Book Implied: 54.50% / 50.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 48%
Under 8.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas City)
White SoxCHW (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

35.4%

Royals Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.2%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Jun 26, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 22
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Kansas City KC
158
Games Played
158
4.75 ▲
Runs / Game
4.25
.235
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.399
.723 ▲
OPS
.715
203 ▲
Home Runs
164
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Chicago: 0.1
Hits (L5) +10.3% more
Kansas City: 10.1 vs Chicago: 9.2
Batting Avg (Season) +1.1%
Kansas City: 24.6% vs Chicago: 23.5%
Walks (L5) +52.8% more
Chicago: 5.2 vs Kansas City: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.5 4
KC Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.1 / 9.2 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 10.1 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.2 / 17.0 14.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.4 / 5.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100 → -120 / -101
70%TICKETS30%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
80%TICKETS20%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
82-77-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
68-91-0 (42.8%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
(48.1%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
90-66-2
O: 57.7% / U: 42.3% Total +/-: +0.9
KC
70-84-4
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
56% 88-69
49% 78-80
56% 88-68
56% 89-69
ATS
57% 90-67
59% 94-64
59% 92-64
56% 89-69
TTL
59% 88-62-7
57% 89-67-2
54% 80-69-7
50% 78-78-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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