CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
73-85 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
93-65 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 6-11 | 4.70 | 1.47 | 159.0 | 125 |
| Chris Sale | 14-9 | 2.18 | 0.99 | 157.0 | 190 |
6-11
W-L
14-9
4.70
ERA
Ldr 2.18
1.47
WHIP
Ldr 0.99
159.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
157.0
125
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 190
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
39%
BRAVES
61%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (CIN)
REDS
31%
Book Odds: +223
BRAVES
74%
Book Odds: -278
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 2.80
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 2.80
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
May 29, 2026
ATL @ CIN
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
158
Games Played
158
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.59
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.311
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.411
.699
OPS
▲
.721
208
▲
Home Runs
200
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+14.0% more
Atlanta: 8.1
vs
Cincinnati: 7.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.0% more
Atlanta: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.2%
Atlanta: 72.1%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.8%
Atlanta: 24.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
2
ATL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.9
8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 12.3
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.8
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -193
→
+223 / -278
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
73-85-0
(46.2%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
93-65-0
(58.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
82-72-4
O: 53.3% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
72-78-8
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
46%
71-85
55%
86-69
53%
83-74
49%
77-79
ATS
58%
90-66
54%
84-71
52%
82-75
49%
77-79
TTL
53%
79-69-8
53%
79-71-5
49%
72-76-8
54%
81-70-5
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