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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

96-62  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

91-67  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Englert 0-3 4.54 1.43 35.2 32
Gerrit Cole 9-9 3.63 1.10 121.1 123
0-3 W-L 9-9
4.54 ERA Ldr 3.63
1.43 WHIP Ldr 1.10
35.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 121.1
32 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 123
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
35%
📊
YANKEES
65%
▲ Edge: +6% (NYY)
RAYS 46% Book Odds: +118
YANKEES 59% Book Odds: -143
Book Implied: 45.90% / 58.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 73%
Under 6.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

63.7%

Yankees Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.5%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim Yankees Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 22, 2026 TB @ NYY 0 - 2
Jul 9, 2026 NYY @ TB 12 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYY
159
Games Played
159
4.52
Runs / Game
▲ 4.60
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.311
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .410
.727 ▲
OPS
.721
165
Home Runs
▲ 223
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +125.0% more
New York: 1.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +69.1% more
New York: 13.1 vs Tampa Bay: 7.7
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
New York: 0.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Hits (L5) +35.9% more
New York: 7.0 vs Tampa Bay: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 2
NYY Score 5.2 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 5.2 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.5 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.5 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 7.7 25.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.1 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131 → +118 / -143 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 6.5 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
96-63-0 (60.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
NYY
92-67-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
NYY
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
73-81-5
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
74-80-5
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47% 73-82
59% 92-65
52% 81-74
59% 93-64
ATS
59% 91-64
59% 93-64
53% 82-73
54% 85-72
TTL
52% 77-72-6
47% 70-79-8
52% 77-71-6
51% 75-73-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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