Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Pirates STL @ PIT

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

77-81  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

80-78  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Liberatore
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Liberatore

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Lake Bachar
STARTING PITCHER

Lake Bachar

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Liberatore 5-14 5.36 1.49 149.1 148
Lake Bachar 1-4 3.56 1.14 83.1 87
5-14 W-L 1-4
5.36 ERA Ldr 3.56
1.49 WHIP Ldr 1.14
149.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 83.1
148 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 87
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
46%
📊
PIRATES
54%
CARDINALS 46% Book Odds: +118
PIRATES 59% Book Odds: -143
Book Implied: 45.90% / 58.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 7.0 74%
Under 7.0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (+1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

64.6%

Pirates Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.80
5.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.80
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.691
OPS
▲ .734
167
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +61.5% more
Pittsburgh: 14.7 vs St. Louis: 9.1
Home Runs (L5) +51.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.3 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Walks (L5) +48.3% more
Pittsburgh: 3.5 vs St. Louis: 2.3
Hits (L5) +41.5% more
Pittsburgh: 8.0 vs St. Louis: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 5
PIT Score 5.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 5.7 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 11.0 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 9.1 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -155 → +118 / -143 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
34%TICKETS66%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52% 82-77
53% 85-74
52% 85-78
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 81-82
53% 85-76
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 79-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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