MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
99-59 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
87-71 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | 10-3 | 2.51 | 0.81 | 93.1 | 107 |
| Aaron Nola | 7-10 | 4.49 | 1.35 | 168.1 | 169 |
10-3
W-L
7-10
2.51 Ldr
ERA
4.49
0.81 Ldr
WHIP
1.35
93.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 168.1
107
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 169
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
63%
PHILLIES
37%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (MIL)
BREWERS
56%
Book Odds: -126
PHILLIES
49%
Book Odds: +104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.0
66%
Under 7.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Win
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
158
Games Played
158
5.13
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.339
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.312
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.397
.741
▲
OPS
.709
151
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.6% more
Milwaukee: 12.6
vs
Philadelphia: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Milwaukee: 74.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.0
4
PHI Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 6.7
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 12.6
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 9.2
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.6
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -137
→
-126 / +104
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
100-59-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
87-72-0
(54.7%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.2%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(42.1%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
71-84-4
O: 45.8% / U: 54.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
74-76-9
O: 49.3% / U: 50.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
58%
92-66
63%
97-58
49%
78-80
51%
79-76
ATS
65%
102-56
59%
91-64
50%
79-79
48%
75-80
TTL
56%
84-66-8
41%
60-88-7
50%
74-75-8
51%
75-73-7
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