Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Orioles TOR @ BAL

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

77-81  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

77-81  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
CJ Van Eyk
STARTING PITCHER

CJ Van Eyk

#58 | P
@
Trey Gibson
STARTING PITCHER

Trey Gibson

#43 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
CJ Van Eyk 0-1 4.05 1.95 6.2 1
Trey Gibson 1-3 7.36 1.91 33.0 30
0-1 W-L 1-3
4.05 Ldr ERA 7.36
1.95 WHIP Ldr 1.91
6.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 33.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 30
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
51%
📊
ORIOLES
49%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS 50% Book Odds: +102
ORIOLES 55% Book Odds: -123
Book Implied: 49.50% / 55.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 64%
Under 7.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (+1.5) 0 OriolesBAL (-1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

63.7%

Orioles Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.2%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 TOR @ BAL 2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026 TOR @ BAL 3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026 BAL @ TOR 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 BAL @ TOR 3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026 BAL @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Baltimore BAL
159
Games Played
159
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.43
.248 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.382
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.692
OPS
▲ .707
150
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +48.0% more
Toronto: 0.6 vs Baltimore: 0.1
Walks (L5) +26.8% more
Toronto: 3.4 vs Baltimore: 2.5
Hits (L5) +15.1% more
Toronto: 7.5 vs Baltimore: 6.4
Batting Avg (Season) +1.5%
Toronto: 24.8% vs Baltimore: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 5.2 2
BAL Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 7.5 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 5.4 10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 9.6 8.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.4 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -122 → +102 / -123
45%TICKETS55%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
51%TICKETS49%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
77-82-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
78-81-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(47.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
80-74-5
O: 51.9% / U: 48.1% Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
78-77-4
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53% 82-73
46% 72-86
57% 89-68
50% 79-78
ATS
61% 94-60-1
56% 89-69
57% 89-67-1
49% 77-80
TTL
53% 80-70-5
52% 79-74-5
50% 76-75-6
45% 69-83-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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