WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
75-84 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
74-85 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Richard Lovelady
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Framber Valdez
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Lovelady | 3-4 | 3.86 | 1.84 | 32.2 | 30 |
| Framber Valdez | 10-11 | 4.06 | 1.36 | 168.2 | 129 |
3-4
W-L
10-11
3.86 Ldr
ERA
4.06
1.84
WHIP
Ldr 1.36
32.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 168.2
30
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 129
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
38%
TIGERS
62%
NATIONALS
41%
Book Odds: +144
TIGERS
64%
Book Odds: -174
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
WSH @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
WSH @ DET
3 - 1
Sep 21, 2026
WSH @ DET
2 - 9
Jul 3, 2025
DET @ WSH
7 - 11
Jul 2, 2025
DET @ WSH
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Detroit
DET
159
Games Played
159
5.08
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.720
207
▲
Home Runs
177
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+151.3% more
Detroit: 4.9
vs
Washington: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+24.3% more
Detroit: 8.9
vs
Washington: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+19.6% more
Detroit: 14.4
vs
Washington: 12.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.5% more
Detroit: 9.1
vs
Washington: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
4
DET Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.1
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 12.0
13.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.9 / 2.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+144 / -174
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
75-84-0
(47.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
74-85-0
(46.5%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.6%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
83-68-8
O: 55.0% / U: 45.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
DET
69-82-8
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
WSH
DET
WSH
ML
54%
84-72
57%
90-68
54%
85-72
55%
87-71
ATS
63%
99-57
58%
91-67
57%
89-68
56%
89-69
TTL
46%
67-80-9
49%
75-77-6
46%
68-79-10
41%
63-89-6
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