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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

87-70  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

97-60  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brock Stewart
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Stewart

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael King 12-9 3.03 1.16 181.0 154
Brock Stewart 1-2 2.55 0.97 24.2 23
12-9 W-L 1-2
3.03 ERA Ldr 2.55
1.16 WHIP Ldr 0.97
181.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 24.2
154 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 23
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
30%
📊
DODGERS
70%
▲ Edge: +13.50% (LAD)
PADRES 48% Book Odds: +109
DODGERS 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 47.80% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.9%

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Padres Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +65.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs San Diego: 0.0
Strikeouts (L5) +26.9% more
San Diego: 8.0 vs Los Angeles: 5.8
Home Runs (L5) +22.4% more
San Diego: 2.2 vs Los Angeles: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.2 0
LAD Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.2 / 11.4 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 2.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 8.0 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 20.8 18.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.2 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -122 → +109 / -131 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-67-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(42.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
75-90-5
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
54% 92-77
51% 85-83
48% 81-89
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 98-71
54% 91-77
44% 75-95
55% 92-75
TTL
49% 80-83-6
51% 82-80-6
45% 73-91-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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