MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
74-84 | Road
3
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
65-93 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Blade Tidwell
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 11-6 | 3.81 | 1.23 | 172.1 | 199 |
| Blade Tidwell | 1-2 | 4.56 | 1.20 | 53.1 | 42 |
11-6
W-L
1-2
3.81 Ldr
ERA
4.56
1.23
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
172.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
53.1
199 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
42
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
32%
GIANTS
68%
▲ Edge: +21.50% (SF)
TWINS
59%
Book Odds: -141
GIANTS
46%
Book Odds: +117
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.20
San Francisco
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.20
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Giants
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
MIN @ SF
4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIN @ SF
3 - 2
Sep 21, 2026
MIN @ SF
2 - 5
May 11, 2025
SF @ MIN
6 - 7
May 10, 2025
SF @ MIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
▲
OPS
.706
187
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.5% more
San Francisco: 11.9
vs
Minnesota: 9.1
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5
vs
Minnesota: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+24.3% more
San Francisco: 2.2
vs
Minnesota: 1.7
Home Runs (L5)
+36.2% more
Minnesota: 1.3
vs
San Francisco: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.8
3
SF Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.4
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.9 / 9.1
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 13.3
6.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.2 / 1.7
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -117 / -103
→
-141 / +117
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MIN
SF
MIN
ML
49%
79-81
52%
84-78
53%
85-75
50%
80-81
ATS
62%
100-60
59%
95-67
52%
83-77
59%
95-66
TTL
55%
82-68-10
51%
78-75-9
46%
68-81-11
53%
80-72-9
Contextual Game News
Braves Reliever Joel Payamps Hits Free Agency Following Playoff …
MLB Experiments with Outfield Positioning Rules to Boost Offense…
Junior Caminero Trade Revisited: How the Rays Stole a Superstar …
Ben Affleck Sets the Record Straight on Yankees Hat Controversy …
Magic Johnson Remains Optimistic as Dodgers Face 2-0 Deficit Aga…