Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Mariners HOU @ SEA

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

78-79  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

73-84  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Cristian Javier
STARTING PITCHER

Cristian Javier

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Gilbert

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cristian Javier 2-6 5.31 1.46 61.0 57
Logan Gilbert 12-10 3.69 1.06 178.0 194
2-6 W-L 12-10
5.31 ERA Ldr 3.69
1.46 WHIP Ldr 1.06
61.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 178.0
57 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 194
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
40%
📊
MARINERS
60%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (SEA)
ASTROS 47% Book Odds: +112
MARINERS 57% Book Odds: -135
Book Implied: 47.20% / 57.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 69%
Under 7.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Houston Astros (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

63.7%

Mariners Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

15.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 HOU @ SEA 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026 HOU @ SEA 7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026 SEA @ HOU 3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026 SEA @ HOU 10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026 SEA @ HOU 7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Seattle SEA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.10
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .379
.582
OPS
▲ .693
4
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5) +49.5% more
Seattle: 3.0 vs Houston: 2.0
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Seattle: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +36.7% more
Seattle: 4.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.8 7
SEA Score 5.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.0 4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 9.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 14.4 4.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.0 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → +112 / -135 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
40%TICKETS60%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50% 81-81
50% 81-82
52% 85-77
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 98-64
56% 91-72
59% 95-67
55% 90-74
TTL
56% 85-67-10
45% 70-84-9
53% 81-71-10
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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