HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
78-79 | Road
7
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
73-84 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 2-6 | 5.31 | 1.46 | 61.0 | 57 |
| Logan Gilbert | 12-10 | 3.69 | 1.06 | 178.0 | 194 |
2-6
W-L
12-10
5.31
ERA
Ldr 3.69
1.46
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
61.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 178.0
57
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 194
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
40%
MARINERS
60%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (SEA)
ASTROS
47%
Book Odds: +112
MARINERS
57%
Book Odds: -135
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.5%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Seattle
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
May 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Seattle
SEA
157
Games Played
157
4.43
▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.240
▲
Avg (AVG)
.231
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.312
.411
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.725
▲
OPS
.691
212
▲
Home Runs
179
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+49.5% more
Seattle: 3.0
vs
Houston: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Seattle: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+41.6% more
Houston: 1.7
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.5% more
Houston: 9.4
vs
Seattle: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.8
7
SEA Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 8.0
4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.7
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.4
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 14.4
4.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.0
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+112 / -135
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
78-79-0
(49.7%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
73-84-0
(46.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.0%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(36.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
75-73-9
O: 50.7% / U: 49.3%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
81-68-8
O: 54.4% / U: 45.6%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50%
78-79
49%
77-79
52%
82-75
45%
71-86
ATS
61%
95-62
55%
86-70
59%
92-65
55%
86-71
TTL
54%
80-67-10
45%
66-81-9
52%
76-71-10
43%
64-84-9
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