Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Athletics LAA @ ATH

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

60-97  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

62-95  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi
STARTING PITCHER

Yusei Kikuchi

#16 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Basso

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yusei Kikuchi 1-6 5.02 1.55 57.1 58
Brady Basso 1-3 4.50 1.48 40.0 28
1-6 W-L 1-3
5.02 ERA Ldr 4.50
1.55 WHIP Ldr 1.48
57.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 40.0
58 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 28
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
48%
📊
ATHLETICS
52%
ANGELS 52% Book Odds: -109
ATHLETICS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.20% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5 45%
Under 9.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Athletics)
AngelsLAA (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

36.3%

Athletics Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.50
5.2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.50
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 LAA @ ATH 3 - 7
Sep 22, 2026 LAA @ ATH 7 - 9
Jun 28, 2026 ATH @ LAA 1 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 ATH @ LAA 2 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATH @ LAA 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .719
154
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +26.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +22.1% more
Athletics: 10.5 vs Los Angeles: 8.6
Home Runs (L5) +17.0% more
Athletics: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Hits (L5) +15.3% more
Athletics: 7.0 vs Los Angeles: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 7
ATH Score 5.2 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 6.1 14.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 11.1 3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 8.6 27.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.7 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110 → -109 / -110
49%TICKETS51%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
45%TICKETS55%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
82%TICKETS18%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
LAA
ATH
LAA
ML
59% 95-67
59% 96-66
54% 87-74
55% 89-73
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 97-65
50% 81-80
51% 82-80
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 83-74-5
42% 66-90-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Miguel Rojas Retires After Dodgers' NLCS Sweep by Brewers
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Jake Bauers: The Unlikely Hero Who Propelled Brewers to NLCS MVP
si 0 minutes ago
Brewers Fans Celebrate Historic World Series Berth After Sweepin…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Pat Murphy's 'Gamers' Jab Silences Doubters as Brewers Sweep Dod…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Miguel Rojas Confirms Retirement After Dodgers' NLCS Exit, Eyes …
yahoo 0 minutes ago