ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
83-74 | Road
7
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
57-100 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Soroka
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | 8-5 | 3.45 | 1.13 | 104.1 | 101 |
| Kyle Freeland | 4-10 | 6.38 | 1.47 | 128.1 | 104 |
8-5
W-L
4-10
3.45 Ldr
ERA
6.38
1.13 Ldr
WHIP
1.47
104.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 128.1
101
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
64%
ROCKIES
36%
DIAMONDBACKS
64%
Book Odds: -181
ROCKIES
40%
Book Odds: +149
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 11.0
42%
Under 11.0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.7%
COL By 1-2 runs
14.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
ARI @ COL
5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
ARI @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
COL @ ARI
6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
COL @ ARI
3 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
COL @ ARI
0 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Colorado
COL
158
Games Played
158
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.63
.244
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.399
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.415
.714
OPS
▲
.737
159
Home Runs
▲
172
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.4% more
Arizona: 1.3
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Arizona: 0.5
vs
Colorado: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+19.3% more
Arizona: 3.3
vs
Colorado: 2.6
Total Bases (L5)
+17.0% more
Arizona: 15.2
vs
Colorado: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.8
7
COL Score
4.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.2
3.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.9
11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 15.2
7.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.3
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -199 / +163
→
-181 / +149
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
84-74-0
(53.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
57-101-0
(36.1%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.9%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
67-85-6
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
COL
75-78-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60%
94-63
54%
84-73
54%
85-72
53%
83-73
ATS
60%
94-63
56%
88-69
52%
82-75
55%
86-70
TTL
59%
89-62-6
51%
76-73-8
50%
76-75-6
48%
70-76-9
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