Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rangers NYM @ TEX

NEW YORK

METSNYM

72-85  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

78-79  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
MacKenzie Gore
STARTING PITCHER

MacKenzie Gore

#1 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea 5-7 4.74 1.32 138.2 132
MacKenzie Gore 8-11 4.67 1.35 165.2 172
5-7 W-L 8-11
4.74 ERA Ldr 4.67
1.32 Ldr WHIP 1.35
138.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 165.2
132 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 172
AI Model Win Probability
METS
53%
📊
RANGERS
47%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (NYM)
METS 49% Book Odds: +105
RANGERS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 60%
Under 8.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

63.7%

Rangers Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.2%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
3.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 NYM @ TEX 1 - 3
Sep 23, 2026 NYM @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 NYM @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 14, 2025 TEX @ NYM 2 - 5
Sep 13, 2025 TEX @ NYM 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.705
OPS
▲ .713
204 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +33.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Texas: 0.8
Hits (L5) +25.0% more
New York: 9.8 vs Texas: 7.3
Total Bases (L5) +21.4% more
New York: 14.0 vs Texas: 11.0
Home Runs (Season) +10.3% more
New York: 204.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.2 6
TEX Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 9.8 3.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.6 15.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 14.0 4.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +121 / -146 → +105 / -126 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
31%TICKETS69%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYM
TEX
NYM
ML
53% 86-76
50% 79-80
57% 91-70
48% 76-83
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-66
61% 98-63
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 80-66-13
55% 81-66-14
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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