Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Cubs MIA @ CHC

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

77-80  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

87-70  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Janson Junk
STARTING PITCHER

Janson Junk

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Janson Junk 6-9 4.50 1.34 114.0 78
Shota Imanaga 11-10 3.80 1.10 168.1 164
6-9 W-L 11-10
4.50 ERA Ldr 3.80
1.34 WHIP Ldr 1.10
114.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 168.1
78 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 164
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
📊
CUBS
60%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (MIA)
MARLINS 36% Book Odds: +179
CUBS 69% Book Odds: -219
Book Implied: 35.80% / 68.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 74%
Under 6.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Cubs Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIA @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 MIA @ CHC 3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIA @ CHC 8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026 CHC @ MIA 3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.727 ▲
OPS
.374
168 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +61.1% more
Chicago: 2.0 vs Miami: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +43.2% more
Chicago: 18.0 vs Miami: 12.6
Hits (L5) +29.6% more
Chicago: 10.0 vs Miami: 7.7
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Chicago: 0.8 vs Miami: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 8
CHC Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.0 / 7.7 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.1 17.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 12.6 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.6 / 4.2 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +187 / -211 → +179 / -219 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
12%TICKETS88%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 6.5 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
58% 93-68
48% 78-84
51% 82-79
55% 88-72
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 91-71
47% 75-85-1
54% 86-74
TTL
52% 81-74-6
56% 88-69-5
46% 72-83-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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