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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

77-80  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

87-70  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Janson Junk
STARTING PITCHER

Janson Junk

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Janson Junk 6-9 4.50 1.34 114.0 78
Shota Imanaga 11-10 3.80 1.10 168.1 164
6-9 W-L 11-10
4.50 ERA Ldr 3.80
1.34 WHIP Ldr 1.10
114.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 168.1
78 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 164
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
📊
CUBS
60%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (MIA)
MARLINS 36% Book Odds: +179
CUBS 69% Book Odds: -219
Book Implied: 35.80% / 68.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 74%
Under 6.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Cubs Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.50
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cubs Loss
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 22, 2026 MIA @ CHC 8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026 CHC @ MIA 3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Sep 4, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 1
May 21, 2025 CHC @ MIA 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Chicago CHC
157
Games Played
157
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.33
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .251
.327
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .339
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .430
.727
OPS
▲ .770
162
Home Runs
▲ 217
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +61.1% more
Chicago: 2.0 vs Miami: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +43.2% more
Chicago: 18.0 vs Miami: 12.6
Home Runs (Season) +34.0% more
Chicago: 217.0 vs Miami: 162.0
Hits (L5) +29.6% more
Chicago: 10.0 vs Miami: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 8
CHC Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.0 / 7.7 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.1 17.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 12.6 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.6 / 4.2 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +187 / -211 → +179 / -219 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
12%TICKETS88%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 6.5 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
77-80-0 (49.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
87-70-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(47.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
81-72-4
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
88-66-3
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
57% 88-67
48% 75-82
52% 80-74
55% 85-70
ATS
60% 92-62-1
57% 89-68
48% 73-80-1
54% 84-71
TTL
53% 79-70-6
57% 87-66-4
47% 70-78-6
54% 81-70-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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