CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
81-76 | Road
14
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
67-90 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 9-9 | 4.41 | 1.36 | 149.0 | 121 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | 6-5 | 3.29 | 1.07 | 76.2 | 52 |
9-9
W-L
6-5
4.41
ERA
Ldr 3.29
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
149.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
76.2
121 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
52
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
33%
ROYALS
67%
▲ Edge: +17.60% (KC)
WHITE SOX
56%
Book Odds: -125
ROYALS
49%
Book Odds: +104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.5%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Kansas City
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CHW @ KC
9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
CHW @ KC
4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026
CHW @ KC
14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026
KC @ CHW
5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026
KC @ CHW
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Kansas City
KC
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Kansas City: 0.9
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+19.5% more
Kansas City: 8.6
vs
Chicago: 7.2
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Kansas City: 1.1
vs
Chicago: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.8
14
KC Score
5.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.2
13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.1
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 12.0
23.0 / 27.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.7
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +102
→
-125 / +104
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-81-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-70-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +0.9
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
55%
89-72
49%
82-87
56%
90-70
56%
94-75
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
100-69
58%
93-67
55%
93-76
TTL
58%
90-64-7
58%
97-70-2
54%
83-70-7
51%
85-82-2
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