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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

73-84  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

92-65  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Williamson
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Williamson

#55 | SP
@
JR Ritchie
STARTING PITCHER

JR Ritchie

#60 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Williamson 4-4 5.56 1.53 43.2 31
JR Ritchie 1-3 5.03 1.47 62.2 58
4-4 W-L 1-3
5.56 ERA Ldr 5.03
1.53 WHIP Ldr 1.47
43.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 62.2
31 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 58
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
48%
📊
BRAVES
52%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (CIN)
REDS 34% Book Odds: +193
BRAVES 70% Book Odds: -238
Book Implied: 34.10% / 70.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5 45%
Under 9.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (+1.5) 0 BravesATL (-1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

63.7%

Braves Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CIN @ ATL 7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 CIN @ ATL 2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 CIN @ ATL 4 - 0
May 31, 2026 ATL @ CIN 4 - 6
May 30, 2026 ATL @ CIN 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Atlanta ATL
159
Games Played
159
4.12
Runs / Game
▲ 4.60
.228
Avg (AVG)
▲ .248
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .311
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .411
.700
OPS
▲ .722
211 ▲
Home Runs
201
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +91.0% more
Atlanta: 1.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +75.2% more
Atlanta: 14.9 vs Cincinnati: 8.5
Hits (L5) +52.9% more
Atlanta: 8.7 vs Cincinnati: 5.7
Walks (L5) +20.4% more
Atlanta: 3.3 vs Cincinnati: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.8 4
ATL Score 5.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 5.7 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.4 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 8.5 8.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -194 → +193 / -238 ↑
24%TICKETS76%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
23%TICKETS77%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9.5 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
74-85-0 (46.5%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
93-66-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.2%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
83-72-4
O: 53.6% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
73-78-8
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
45% 71-86
55% 86-70
53% 84-74
50% 78-79
ATS
58% 91-66
54% 85-71
53% 83-75
50% 78-79
TTL
54% 80-69-8
53% 80-71-5
49% 73-76-8
54% 82-70-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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