CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
73-84 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
92-65 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Williamson
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
JR Ritchie
#60 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson | 4-4 | 5.56 | 1.53 | 43.2 | 31 |
| JR Ritchie | 1-3 | 5.03 | 1.47 | 62.2 | 58 |
4-4
W-L
1-3
5.56
ERA
Ldr 5.03
1.53
WHIP
Ldr 1.47
43.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 62.2
31
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 58
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
48%
BRAVES
52%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (CIN)
REDS
34%
Book Odds: +193
BRAVES
70%
Book Odds: -238
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5
45%
Under 9.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.699
OPS
▲
.757
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+91.0% more
Atlanta: 1.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+75.2% more
Atlanta: 14.9
vs
Cincinnati: 8.5
Hits (L5)
+52.9% more
Atlanta: 8.7
vs
Cincinnati: 5.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+21.7% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
4
ATL Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 5.7
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.4
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 8.5
8.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.7
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -194
→
+193 / -238
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
46%
77-90
55%
88-71
54%
90-78
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-73-5
49%
76-80-11
54%
83-72-5
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