CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
82-75 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
84-73 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 12-9 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 178.1 | 186 |
| Payton Tolle | 9-6 | 3.02 | 1.07 | 143.0 | 166 |
12-9
W-L
9-6
2.57 Ldr
ERA
3.02
1.04 Ldr
WHIP
1.07
178.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
143.0
186 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
166
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
43%
RED SOX
57%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (BOS)
GUARDIANS
49%
Book Odds: +104
RED SOX
56%
Book Odds: -125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 6.0
77%
Under 6.0
23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.8
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.20
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.20
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.696
▲
OPS
.409
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Boston: 0.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.0% more
Boston: 8.9
vs
Cleveland: 7.7
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+76.1% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.8
3
BOS Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.3
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.7
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 15.5
15.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.8
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -122
→
+104 / -125
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
90-80-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
82-87-1
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
50%
80-80
54%
90-76
47%
76-87
49%
81-86
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
95-71
48%
79-84
58%
97-70
TTL
46%
72-83-5
55%
90-74-2
47%
74-83-6
43%
71-93-2
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