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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

74-84  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

74-84  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Riley Cornelio
STARTING PITCHER

Riley Cornelio

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Anderson

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley Cornelio 3-2 4.22 1.53 32.0 34
Drew Anderson 5-6 3.62 1.29 102.0 109
3-2 W-L 5-6
4.22 ERA Ldr 3.62
1.53 WHIP Ldr 1.29
32.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 102.0
34 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 109
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
25%
📊
TIGERS
75%
▲ Edge: +15% (DET)
NATIONALS 45% Book Odds: +124
TIGERS 60% Book Odds: -150
Book Implied: 44.60% / 60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Detroit)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 TigersDET (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

30.9%

Tigers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
5.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 WSH @ DET 4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 WSH @ DET 3 - 1
Sep 21, 2026 WSH @ DET 2 - 9
Jul 3, 2025 DET @ WSH 7 - 11
Jul 2, 2025 DET @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Detroit DET
159
Games Played
159
5.08 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.720
207 ▲
Home Runs
177
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +48.5% more
Detroit: 4.4 vs Washington: 2.9
Total Bases (L5) +47.8% more
Detroit: 17.0 vs Washington: 11.5
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Detroit: 1.3 vs Washington: 0.9
Hits (L5) +35.9% more
Detroit: 9.8 vs Washington: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.5 3
DET Score 5.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 7.2 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 8.4 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.0 / 11.5 9.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.9 6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -155 → +124 / -150 ↓
25%TICKETS75%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
20%TICKETS80%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
92%TICKETS8%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
75-84-0 (47.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
74-85-0 (46.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.6%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
83-68-8
O: 55.0% / U: 45.0% Total +/-: +1.2
DET
69-82-8
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
WSH
DET
WSH
ML
54% 84-72
57% 90-68
54% 85-72
55% 87-71
ATS
63% 99-57
58% 91-67
57% 89-68
56% 89-69
TTL
46% 67-80-9
49% 75-77-6
46% 68-79-10
41% 63-89-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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