Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Pirates STL @ PIT

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

76-81  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

80-77  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Andre Pallante
STARTING PITCHER

Andre Pallante

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jared Jones
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Jones

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andre Pallante 12-7 3.70 1.26 151.0 104
Jared Jones 4-6 4.17 1.19 90.2 109
12-7 W-L 4-6
3.70 Ldr ERA 4.17
1.26 WHIP Ldr 1.19
151.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 90.2
104 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 109
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
50%
📊
PIRATES
50%
▲ Edge: +8.20% (STL)
CARDINALS 42% Book Odds: +140
PIRATES 63% Book Odds: -169
Book Implied: 41.70% / 62.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 7.0 73%
Under 7.0 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (+1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

64.6%

Pirates Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.80
5.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.80
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 PIT @ STL 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
158
Games Played
158
4.49
Runs / Game
▲ 4.75
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.315
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .405
.695
OPS
▲ .735
161
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +69.4% more
Pittsburgh: 1.9 vs St. Louis: 1.1
Walks (L5) +48.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.7 vs St. Louis: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +38.8% more
Pittsburgh: 17.6 vs St. Louis: 12.6
Hits (L5) +19.1% more
Pittsburgh: 9.5 vs St. Louis: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 0
PIT Score 5.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.5 / 8.0 5.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.5 4.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 12.6 9.0 / 2.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +121 / -146 → +140 / -169 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-82-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
81-78-0 (50.9%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
PIT
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
72-78-8
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
80-71-7
O: 53.0% / U: 47.0% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
51% 79-76
52% 81-74
52% 82-77
51% 80-77
ATS
54% 84-71
57% 88-67
49% 78-81
53% 83-74
TTL
47% 70-79-6
46% 66-79-10
51% 78-75-6
50% 74-73-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Seattle Mariners Officially Eliminated from 2026 Playoff Race Af…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cubs Overcome Pitching Injuries to Clinch Playoff Berth, Crow-Ar…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Can You Name All 28 Active Pitchers with Multiple 200-Strikeout …
yardbarker 6 hours, 17 minutes ago
Padres' Michael King Tapped for Crucial Game 1 Start, Manager St…
si 6 hours, 18 minutes ago
James Tibbs III Posts Historic Season for Triple-A Oklahoma City…
si 6 hours, 18 minutes ago