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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

98-59  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

87-70  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Dustin May
STARTING PITCHER

Dustin May

#21 | SP
@
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dustin May 7-9 4.61 1.32 140.2 137
Zack Wheeler 13-5 2.99 1.06 150.1 177
7-9 W-L 13-5
4.61 ERA Ldr 2.99
1.32 WHIP Ldr 1.06
140.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 150.1
137 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 177
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
37%
📊
PHILLIES
63%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (PHI)
BREWERS 44% Book Odds: +128
PHILLIES 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.90% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.0 66%
Under 7.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BrewersMIL (+1.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

64.6%

Phillies Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

MIL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 2.80
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
7
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 2.80
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Phillies Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Brewers Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIL @ PHI 5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 MIL @ PHI 4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 MIL @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026 PHI @ MIL 0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 PHI @ MIL 9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Philadelphia PHI
159
Games Played
159
5.13 ▲
Runs / Game
4.43
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.240
.340 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.312
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.742 ▲
OPS
.707
152
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +32.3% more
Philadelphia: 5.8 vs Milwaukee: 4.4
Home Runs (Season) +18.4% more
Philadelphia: 180.0 vs Milwaukee: 152.0
Home Runs (L5) +36.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8 vs Philadelphia: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +27.4% more
Milwaukee: 11.4 vs Philadelphia: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 3.5 4
PHI Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.0 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 11.4 4.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 10.9 13.0 / 6.0
Walks 5.8 / 4.4 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136 → +128 / -155 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
100-59-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
87-72-0 (54.7%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.2%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
(42.1%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
71-84-4
O: 45.8% / U: 54.2% Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
74-76-9
O: 49.3% / U: 50.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
58% 92-66
63% 97-58
49% 78-80
51% 79-76
ATS
65% 102-56
59% 91-64
50% 79-79
48% 75-80
TTL
56% 84-66-8
41% 60-88-7
50% 74-75-8
51% 75-73-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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