MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
98-59 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
87-70 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 7-9 | 4.61 | 1.32 | 140.2 | 137 |
| Zack Wheeler | 13-5 | 2.99 | 1.06 | 150.1 | 177 |
7-9
W-L
13-5
4.61
ERA
Ldr 2.99
1.32
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
140.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 150.1
137
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 177
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
37%
PHILLIES
63%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (PHI)
BREWERS
44%
Book Odds: +128
PHILLIES
61%
Book Odds: -155
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.0
66%
Under 7.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 2.80
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
7
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 2.80
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.743
▲
OPS
.724
154
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+32.3% more
Philadelphia: 5.8
vs
Milwaukee: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.5
4
PHI Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.0
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 11.4
4.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 10.9
13.0 / 6.0
Walks
5.8 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+128 / -155
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
110-60-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(53.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
76-89-5
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
59%
97-67
61%
101-65
49%
80-84
52%
86-80
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
94-72
51%
83-81
49%
81-85
TTL
57%
88-67-9
41%
65-93-8
51%
78-76-9
51%
80-78-8
Contextual Game News
Brewers Broadcaster Jeff Levering Channels Bob Uecker in Epic Pe…
Miguel Rojas Retires After Dodgers' NLCS Sweep by Brewers
Jake Bauers: The Unlikely Hero Who Propelled Brewers to NLCS MVP
Brewers Fans Celebrate Historic World Series Berth After Sweepin…
Pat Murphy's 'Gamers' Jab Silences Doubters as Brewers Sweep Dod…