TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
95-61 | Road
0
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
90-66 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 15-5 | 2.72 | 0.93 | 165.1 | 163 |
| Max Fried | 5-4 | 2.63 | 0.98 | 106.0 | 100 |
15-5
W-L
5-4
2.72
ERA
Ldr 2.63
0.93 Ldr
WHIP
0.98
165.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
106.0
163 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
100
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
43%
YANKEES
57%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (NYY)
RAYS
48%
Book Odds: +108
YANKEES
57%
Book Odds: -130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 6.0
77%
Under 6.0
23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.20
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.728
OPS
▲
1.041
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+137.0% more
New York: 2.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+98.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
New York: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+49.5% more
New York: 15.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
0
NYY Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.2
5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.8
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 10.1
9.0 / 3.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.1
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +117 / -141
→
+108 / -130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
102-66-0
(60.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
77-85-6
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
76-85
58%
96-69
52%
85-77
58%
96-69
ATS
59%
95-66
59%
98-67
53%
86-76
55%
91-74
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-82-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
79-76-10
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