Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Levante vs Athletic Levante vs Athletic

LEVANTELEVANTE

1-4-3  |  Home

3
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Estadi Ciutat de València

ATHLETICATHLETIC

2-3-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LEVANTE
35%
DRAW
31%
ATHLETIC
35%
▲ Edge: +5.60% (Athletic Club)
29% Book Odds: +240
DRAW --
44% Book Odds: +125
Book Implied: 29.40% / % / 44.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 38%
Under 2.5 62%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LEVANTE
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Levante)
LevanteLevante (+0.5) 0 AthleticAthletic (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

38.1% / 61.9%

Shots (On Goal)

12(7) / 21(4)

Corners

3 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Levante 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Levante)

Levante By 1 goal

21.1%

Levante By 2+ goals

15.9%

Athletic Club By 1 goal

21.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LEVANTE
Book Implied: 1
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
LEVANTE
Book Implied: 1
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
38% Win Prob
B
Sim Athletic Club Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Levante (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Athletic Club (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 Levante vs Athletic 3 - 1
Feb 8, 2026 Athletic vs Levante 4 - 2
Nov 29, 2025 Levante vs Athletic 0 - 2
Mar 7, 2022 Athletic vs Levante 3 - 1
Nov 19, 2021 Levante vs Athletic 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +1000.0% more
Athletic: 1.0 vs Levante: 11.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Athletic: 2.0 vs Levante: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Athletic: 0.0 vs Levante: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Levante: 7.0 vs Athletic: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Athletic Club Score 1.0 1
Levante Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Levante (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Levante Share: 50.0% Athletic Club Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Levante
Athletic Club
Levante
Athletic Club
ML
78% 7-2
75% 6-2
33% 3-6
12% 1-7
ATS
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
22% 2-7
25% 2-6
TTL
44% 4-5
62% 5-3
44% 4-5
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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