Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Atlético vs Osasuna Atlético vs Osasuna

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

2-1-0  |  Home

4
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Riyadh Air Metropolitano

OSASUNAOSASUNA

2-1-0  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATLÉTICO
61%
DRAW
21%
OSASUNA
18%
▲ Edge: +41.70% (Osasuna)
76% Book Odds: -310
DRAW --
10% Book Odds: +900
Book Implied: 75.60% / % / 10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
OSASUNA
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Osasuna)
AtléticoAtlético (-1.5) 0 OsasunaOsasuna (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

67.8% / 32.2%

Shots (On Goal)

27(11) / 3(1)

Corners

8 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Osasuna +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Osasuna)

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

36.9%

Osasuna By 1 goal

11.1%

Osasuna By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 2
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 0.50
Simulated Score
3
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 2
0
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 0.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Atlético Madrid Win
48% Win Prob
B
Sim Atlético Madrid Win
94% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Osasuna (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Sim Atlético Madrid (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 Atlético vs Osasuna 4 - 0
Oct 18, 2025 Atlético vs Osasuna 1 - 0
May 15, 2025 Osasuna vs Atlético 2 - 0
Jan 12, 2025 Atlético vs Osasuna 1 - 0
May 19, 2024 Atlético vs Osasuna 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +80.0% more
Atlético: 9.0 vs Osasuna: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Osasuna Score 1.0 0
Atlético Madrid Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlético Madrid (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético Madrid Share: 66.7% Osasuna Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético Madrid
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid
Osasuna
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
69% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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