Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Elche vs Real Madrid Elche vs Real Madrid

ELCHEELCHE

1-2-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Estadio Martínez Valero

REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

5-0-2  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ELCHE
35%
DRAW
31%
REAL MADRID
35%
▲ Edge: +41.70% (Elche)
8% Book Odds: +1100
DRAW --
83% Book Odds: -475
Book Implied: 8.30% / % / 82.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 27%
Under 3.5 73%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 goals (Elche)
ElcheElche (+2.5) 0 Real MadridReal Madrid (-2.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.7% / 44.3%

Shots (On Goal)

11(3) / 20(4)

Corners

2 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Elche 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Elche By 1 goal

21.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

15.9%

Real Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 0.50
1
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 0.50
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Real Madrid Win
83% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Elche (+2) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim Elche (+2.5) Win
Proj Goals: +2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim o3.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2026 Elche vs Real Madrid 2 - 3
Mar 14, 2026 Real Madrid vs Elche 4 - 1
Nov 23, 2025 Elche vs Real Madrid 2 - 2
Oct 19, 2022 Elche vs Real Madrid 0 - 3
Jan 23, 2022 Real Madrid vs Elche 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Elche: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +225.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Elche: 13.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Real Madrid: 1.0 vs Elche: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Real Madrid: 14.0 vs Elche: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Madrid Score 1.0 3
Elche Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Elche (Home) vs Real Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Elche Share: 50.0% Real Madrid Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Elche
Real Madrid
Elche
Real Madrid
ML
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
ATS
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
TTL
43% 3-4
67% 4-2-1
71% 5-2
67% 4-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.