Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Alavés vs Valencia Alavés vs Valencia

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 2:00 PM ET
Mendizorrotza

VALENCIAVALENCIA

1-1-5  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ALAVÉS
61%
DRAW
21%
VALENCIA
18%
▲ Edge: +14.20% (Valencia)
54% Book Odds: -115
DRAW --
21% Book Odds: +380
Book Implied: 53.50% / % / 20.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 51%
Under 2.5 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Alavés)
AlavésAlavés (-0.5) 0 ValenciaValencia (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.3% / 56.7%

Shots (On Goal)

15(3) / 10(3)

Corners

2 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Alavés By 1 goal

26.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

36.9%

Valencia By 1 goal

11.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.50
0
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alavés Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Alavés Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alavés (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Alavés (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2026 Alavés vs Valencia 0 - 1
Mar 8, 2026 Valencia vs Alavés 3 - 2
Oct 20, 2025 Alavés vs Valencia 0 - 0
May 14, 2025 Alavés vs Valencia 1 - 0
Dec 22, 2024 Valencia vs Alavés 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +1000.0% more
Alavés: 11.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Alavés: 3.0 vs Valencia: 0.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Alavés: 1.0 vs Valencia: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 5.0 vs Valencia: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Valencia Score 1.0 1
Alavés Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Alavés (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Alavés Share: 66.7% Valencia Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Alavés
Valencia
Alavés
Valencia
ML
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
ATS
71% 5-2
83% 5-1
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
TTL
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5
27% 1-4-1
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.