Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Rayo vs Espanyol Rayo vs Espanyol

RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Estadio Municipal de Butarque

ESPANYOLESPANYOL

2-1-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYO
35%
DRAW
31%
ESPANYOL
35%
▲ Edge: +20.10% (Espanyol)
44% Book Odds: +125
DRAW --
30% Book Odds: +235
Book Implied: 44.40% / % / 29.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 47%
Under 2.5 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ESPANYOL
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Espanyol)
RayoRayo (-0.5) 0 EspanyolEspanyol (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.5% / 45.5%

Shots (On Goal)

16(2) / 19(5)

Corners

3 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Espanyol 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Espanyol)

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

21.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

15.9%

Espanyol By 1 goal

21.1%

Espanyol By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Espanyol (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Espanyol (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2026 Rayo vs Espanyol 2 - 1
Apr 23, 2026 Rayo vs Espanyol 1 - 0
Dec 7, 2025 Espanyol vs Rayo 1 - 0
Apr 4, 2025 Rayo vs Espanyol 0 - 4
Aug 31, 2024 Espanyol vs Rayo 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +180.0% more
Espanyol: 5.0 vs Rayo: 14.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Espanyol: 2.0 vs Rayo: 1.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Espanyol: 2.0 vs Rayo: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Espanyol Score 1.0 1
Rayo Vallecano Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Espanyol (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Rayo Vallecano Share: 50.0% Espanyol Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
ATS
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
TTL
33% 2-4-1
50% 3-3-1
33% 2-4-1
45% 2-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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