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AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

8-5-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 11:15 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

7-5-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
61%
DRAW
21%
GUADALAJARA
18%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (Guadalajara)
37% Book Odds: +168
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +277
40% Book Odds: +153
Book Implied: 37.30% / 26.50% / 39.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 61%
Under 2.75 39%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (América)
AméricaAmérica (0) 0 GuadalajaraGuadalajara (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.2% / 43.8%

Shots (On Goal)

17(4) / 9(5)

Corners

4 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

Guadalajara By 1 goal

11.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.40
1
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.40
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI América Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Guadalajara Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI América (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Guadalajara (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 América vs Guadalajara 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs América: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 0.0 vs América: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs América: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +71.4% more
Guadalajara: 12.0 vs América: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score 1.0 2
América Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
América (Home) vs Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 66.7% Guadalajara Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Guadalajara
América
Guadalajara
ML
31% 4-9
50% 6-6
62% 8-5
50% 6-6
ATS
52% 6-5-1
70% 7-3-2
70% 8-3-1
40% 4-6-2
TTL
50% 6-6-1
68% 7-3-1
67% 8-4-1
36% 4-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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