Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Monterrey vs Cruz Azul Monterrey vs Cruz Azul

MONTERREYMONTERREY

4-2-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:10 PM ET
Estadio BBVA

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-2-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
61%
DRAW
21%
CRUZ AZUL
18%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (Cruz Azul)
43% Book Odds: +133
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +267
33% Book Odds: +202
Book Implied: 42.90% / 27.20% / 33.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 65%
Under 2.75 35%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MONTERREY
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Monterrey)
MonterreyMonterrey (-0.2) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

47.3% / 52.7%

Shots (On Goal)

17(5) / 12(4)

Corners

6 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Monterrey -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Monterrey)

Monterrey By 1 goal

26.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

36.9%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

11.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
1
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Monterrey Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Cruz Azul Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Monterrey (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Cruz Azul (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Monterrey vs Cruz Azul 1 - 0
Jan 22, 2022 Monterrey vs Cruz Azul 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Monterrey: 2.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Cruz Azul: 3.0 vs Monterrey: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +166.7% more
Cruz Azul: 8.0 vs Monterrey: 3.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Cruz Azul: 1.0 vs Monterrey: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 1.0 0
Monterrey Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Monterrey (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Monterrey Share: 66.7% Cruz Azul Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
ML
40% 4-6
64% 7-4
40% 4-6
45% 5-6
ATS
47% 4-5
50% 5-5-1
40% 4-6
40% 4-6-1
TTL
50% 5-5
40% 4-6-1
50% 5-5
55% 6-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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