Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Necaxa Atl. San Luis vs Necaxa

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

1-3-2  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

NECAXANECAXA

2-1-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
61%
DRAW
21%
NECAXA
18%
▲ Edge: +23.20% (Necaxa)
44% Book Odds: +129
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +265
32% Book Odds: +210
Book Implied: 43.70% / 27.40% / 32.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 52%
Under 2.75 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Atl. San Luis)
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (-0.2) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.8% / 41.2%

Shots (On Goal)

12(5) / 10(3)

Corners

2 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético de San Luis -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético de San Luis)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

36.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlético de San Luis Win
45% Win Prob
C
Sim Atlético de San Luis Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlético de San Luis (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Atlético de San Luis (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Necaxa 3 - 1
Mar 14, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Necaxa 1 - 1
Feb 6, 2026 Necaxa vs Atl. San Luis 4 - 1
Oct 26, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs Necaxa 3 - 4
Sep 27, 2025 Necaxa vs Atl. San Luis 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Necaxa: 2.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Necaxa: 8.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.0 1
Atlético de San Luis Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 66.7% Necaxa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Necaxa
Atlético de San Luis
Necaxa
ML
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
ATS
50% 4-4-1
56% 5-4
71% 5-2-2
56% 5-4
TTL
24% 2-6
56% 5-4
65% 5-3
89% 8-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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