Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlas vs UNAM Atlas vs UNAM

ATLASATLAS

5-3-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Jalisco

UNAMUNAM

3-4-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLAS
35%
DRAW
31%
UNAM
35%
▲ Edge: +20% (Pumas UNAM)
44% Book Odds: +127
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +242
30% Book Odds: +233
Book Implied: 44.10% / 29.20% / 30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 42%
Under 2.5 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
UNAM
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (UNAM)
AtlasAtlas (-0.2) 0 UNAMUNAM (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.4% / 46.6%

Shots (On Goal)

20(4) / 10(3)

Corners

8 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 0/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

Atlas By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

15.9%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

21.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.40
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.40
0
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
40% Win Prob
A
Sim Atlas Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pumas UNAM (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Atlas (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Atlas vs UNAM 1 - 1
Feb 7, 2026 Atlas vs UNAM 2 - 2
Aug 31, 2025 UNAM vs Atlas 1 - 0
Jan 26, 2025 UNAM vs Atlas 0 - 0
Aug 24, 2024 Atlas vs UNAM 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
UNAM: 2.0 vs Atlas: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +42.9% more
UNAM: 7.0 vs Atlas: 10.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 8.0 vs UNAM: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 1
Atlas Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlas (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlas Share: 50.0% Pumas UNAM Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlas
Pumas UNAM
Atlas
Pumas UNAM
ML
64% 7-4
55% 6-5
36% 4-7
20% 2-8
ATS
52% 5-5
52% 5-5
38% 4-6
11% 1-8
TTL
82% 9-2
62% 6-4
45% 5-6
68% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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