Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ Hawai'i SJSU @ HAW

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

3-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-4  |  Home

16
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Gehrig Heil None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
26%
📊
HAWAI'I
74%
▲ Edge: +15.40% (HAW)
SAN JOSÉ ST 46% Book Odds: +120
HAWAI'I 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 58%
Under 51.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Hawai'i)
San José StSJSU (+2.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (-2.5)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

21.6%

Hawai'i Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

SJSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

SJSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

HAW By 1-6 points

14.7%

HAW By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
32.5
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
25
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
33
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Hawai'i Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Sim Hawai'i (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 SJSU @ HAW 20 - 16
Nov 1, 2025 HAW @ SJSU 38 - 45
Oct 28, 2023 SJSU @ HAW 35 - 0
Nov 26, 2022 HAW @ SJSU 14 - 27
Sep 18, 2021 SJSU @ HAW 17 - 13
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +12.0% more
Hawai'i: 20.7 vs San José State: 18.4
Turnovers (L5) +79.6% more
San José State: 2.8 vs Hawai'i: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.5% more
San José State: 143.8 vs Hawai'i: 97.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 21.5 20
HAW Score 32.5 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 18.4 18.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 97.1 / 143.8 97.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 361.3 / 383.2 438.0 / 324.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +125 / -147 → +120 / -142 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 51.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
HAW
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
HAW
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -8.2
HAW
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
SJSU
HAW
SJSU
ML
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
ATS
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
TTL
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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