Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ San Diego St TXST @ SDSU

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

2-3  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

2-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jacob Bonilla
KEY GAME

Jacob Bonilla

#38 | Place kicker
@
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
Player
Jacob Bonilla None-None
Tashi Dorje None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
29%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
71%
▲ Edge: +45.80% (SDSU)
TEXAS ST 79% Book Odds: -375
SAN DIEGO ST 25% Book Odds: +295
Book Implied: 78.90% / 25.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 57.5 43%
Under 57.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (San Diego State)
Texas StTXST (-9.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+9.5)
San Diego State Aztecs (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

24.9%

San Diego St Cover

75.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SDSU -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

TXST By 1-6 points

11.1%

TXST By 7-13 points

7.6%

SDSU By 1-6 points

15.5%

SDSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
32
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
30
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
25
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas St Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
A
Sim San Diego St (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
C
Sim u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 TXST @ SDSU 29 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.1% more
San Diego State: 1.9 vs Texas State: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.0% more
Texas State: 289.4 vs San Diego State: 150.5
Total Yards (L5) +39.9% more
Texas State: 551.5 vs San Diego State: 331.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +31.0% more
Texas State: 0.6 vs San Diego State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 22.5 29
SDSU Score 32.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 25.4 13.0 / 34.0
Rushing Yards 150.5 / 289.4 130.0 / 193.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.1 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 331.6 / 551.5 239.0 / 565.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -172 / +145 → -375 / +295 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -9.5 / +9.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59 → 57.5 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
SDSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
SDSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.1
SDSU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
TXST
SDSU
TXST
ML
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
ATS
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
TTL
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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