Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ Washington St FRES @ WSU

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

4-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 9:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-4  |  Home

6
Key Game
Jaden Carrillo
KEY GAME

Jaden Carrillo

#3 | Defensive Back
@
Max Dean
KEY GAME

Max Dean

#32 | Punter
Player
Jaden Carrillo None-None
Max Dean None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
22%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
78%
▲ Edge: +21.60% (WSU)
FRESNO ST 48% Book Odds: +110
WASHINGTON ST 57% Book Odds: -130
Book Implied: 47.60% / 56.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 66%
Under 44.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.6
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.1 points (Washington State)
Fresno StFRES (+2.5) 0 Washington StWSU (-2.5)
Washington State Cougars (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

16.6%

Washington St Cover

83.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSU -13.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

FRES By 1-6 points

8.1%

FRES By 7-13 points

4.9%

WSU By 1-6 points

13.1%

WSU By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 21
32.8
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
28
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 21
21
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Fresno St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.6
A
Sim Fresno St (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 FRES @ WSU 26 - 6
Oct 12, 2024 WSU @ FRES 25 - 17
Dec 17, 2022 WSU @ FRES 6 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +131.0% more
Washington State: 1.7 vs Fresno State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Washington State: 21.3 vs Fresno State: 19.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Fresno State: 190.5 vs Washington State: 163.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Fresno State: 395.4 vs Washington State: 358.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 19.2 26
WSU Score 32.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 19.3 9.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 163.3 / 190.5 30.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 358.9 / 395.4 182.0 / 375.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → +110 / -130 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 44.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
WSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
FRES
WSU
FRES
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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