MCNEESE
MCNEESEMCN
2-4 | Road
14
LSU
LSULSU
4-1 | Home
63
Key Game
KEY GAME
George Dixon
#38 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Grant Chadwick
#90 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| George Dixon | None-None |
| Grant Chadwick | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MCNEESE
3%
LSU
97%
MCNEESE
--
LSU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.5
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 62.5
58%
Under 62.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+36.5
MCNEESE
Book Spread
+53.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (McNeese)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MCN +36.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)
MCN By 1-6 points
0.3%
MCN By 7-13 points
0.1%
LSU By 1-6 points
1.1%
LSU By 7-13 points
3.4%
AI Model Projected Score
McNeese
14.5
MCNEESE
Book Implied: 4.50
LSU
51
LSU
Book Implied: 58
Simulated Score
McNeese
13
MCNEESE
Book Implied: 4.50
LSU
42
LSU
Book Implied: 58
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
LSU
Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim
LSU
Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
McNeese (+53.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +36.5
A
Sim
McNeese (+53.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +29.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o62.5
Win
Proj Total: 65.5
C
Sim
u62.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
MCN @ LSU
14 - 63
Sep 11, 2021
MCN @ LSU
7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5)
+87.5% more
LSU: 444.1
vs
McNeese: 236.9
First Downs (L5)
+68.4% more
LSU: 21.7
vs
McNeese: 12.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+67.9% more
LSU: 174.0
vs
McNeese: 103.6
Turnovers (L5)
+13.2% more
LSU: 1.5
vs
McNeese: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MCN Score
14.5
14
LSU Score
51.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.7 / 12.9
39.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards
174.0 / 103.6
367.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.53 / 0.08
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards
444.1 / 236.9
731.0 / 196.0
Turnovers
1.5 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +53.5 / -53.5
→
+53.5 / -53.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5
→
62.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
--
LSU
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
--
LSU
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
--
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
MCN
LSU
MCN
ML
80%
4-1
50%
1-1
80%
4-1
50%
1-1
ATS
60%
3-2
100%
2-0
80%
4-1
100%
2-0
TTL
60%
3-2
50%
1-1
0%
0-5
0%
0-2
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