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TEXAS SOUTHERN

TEXAS SOUTHERNTXSO

1-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 6:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

4-1  |  Home

66
Key Game
Brian Mays
KEY GAME

Brian Mays

#50 | Place kicker
@
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
Player
Brian Mays None-None
Reed Chandley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS SOUTHERN
9%
📊
FAU
91%
TEXAS SOUTHERN --
FAU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 62.5 47%
Under 62.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+24.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
+47.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.5 points (Texas Southern)
Texas SouthernTXSO (+47.5) 0 FAUFAU (-47.5)
Texas Southern Tigers (+47.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Southern Cover

95.7%

FAU Cover

4.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXSO +24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

TXSO By 1-6 points

2.5%

TXSO By 7-13 points

1.1%

FAU By 1-6 points

5.9%

FAU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 7.50
42.5
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 55
Simulated Score
13
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 7.50
45
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 55
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI FAU Win
91% Win Prob
A
Sim FAU Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Southern (+47.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +24.0
A
Sim Texas Southern (+47.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +32.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
D
Sim u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 TXSO @ FAU 10 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +106.7% more
Florida Atlantic: 442.9 vs Texas Southern: 214.3
First Downs (L5) +84.8% more
Florida Atlantic: 24.7 vs Texas Southern: 13.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 131.6 vs Texas Southern: 94.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 0.5 vs Texas Southern: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 18.5 10
FAU Score 42.5 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.7 / 13.4 24.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 131.6 / 94.0 130.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.71
Total Yards 442.9 / 214.3 453.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -455 / +320 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +44 / -44 → +47.5 / -47.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5 → 62.5 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
--
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
--
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
--
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
TXSO
FAU
TXSO
ML
80% 4-1
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
TTL
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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