Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Colorado St ORST @ CSU

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

3-2  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 6:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Cavan Craig
KEY GAME

Cavan Craig

#99 | Punter
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Cavan Craig None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
68%
📊
COLORADO ST
32%
OREGON ST 72% Book Odds: -258
COLORADO ST 32% Book Odds: +210
Book Implied: 72.10% / 32.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 60.5 30%
Under 60.5 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oregon State)
Oregon StORST (-7) 0 Colorado StCSU (+7)
Oregon State Beavers (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

71.6%

Colorado St Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-6 points

16.1%

ORST By 7-13 points

19.5%

CSU By 1-6 points

12.2%

CSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
30.5
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 33.80
22.5
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
22
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 33.80
31
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon St Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Colorado St Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon St (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Colorado St (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Sim u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ORST @ CSU 56 - 26
Oct 5, 2024 CSU @ ORST 31 - 39
Aug 26, 2017 ORST @ CSU 27 - 58
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +16.7% more
Oregon State: 23.3 vs Colorado State: 19.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.6% more
Colorado State: 139.0 vs Oregon State: 116.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 30.5 56
CSU Score 22.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 23.3 20.0 / 34.0
Rushing Yards 139.0 / 116.2 188.0 / 223.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.88
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 436.8 / 438.6 371.0 / 650.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -205 / +170 → -258 / +210 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4 / +4 → -7 / +7 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 60.5 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
ORST
CSU
ORST
ML
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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